Now That They Get It, They Can’t Fix It

I have written a number of times previously about the source of the current economic crisis in the United States. To briefly review, the Congress and Clinton administration created policy which encouraged loans to low income individuals because they thought more home ownership would be good for the country. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bought a lot of the loans from primary lenders therefore leading the primary lenders to make more poor loans. The real problem came when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac created securities based on the value of those bad mortgages and sold hundreds of billions of dollars of the securities to investment banks around the world. The current problem with fixing the problem is that there is no way to determine which mortgages are associated with which securities. Because there is no association, no one can determine how much each security is worth. Therefore, banks who own billions of dollars in those securities don’t have any idea whether they own securities of value or not. They are holding onto the solid money they have because they don’t really know how much they have in those securities. The US government is discussing how to get those “toxic assets”, as they are now known, out of the financial system to try to restore normality to the system. The administration and the Congress are still trying to figure out how to do it.

There are several possible ways to try to value those assets. The grindstone way is to look at every single mortgage which was bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to determine the value of the mortgage (solid, just getting by, or in default). Even if that monumental task was done (and it would take a long time), the question then becomes how to assign the individual mortgages to the securities. None of the owners of the securities want the worthless mortgages assigned to the securities that they own. In fact, the owners of the securities are looking for the government to get them their money back. That is patently ridiculous. The idea that taxpayers should make up money to speculators who greedily and hungrily bought those securities is insane. If I buy a stock and the value tanks, I don’t expect the government to refund my money. One way to assign mortgages which would seem fairer is to evaluate them all and to use the average value to calculate the value of the securities. That way, every institution that bought those securities will share proportionately in the pain of the downturn of the real estate market and none will be assigned entirely worthless mortgages. The problem with that approach is that a vague average is assigned and not the actual value of the individual mortgage. When assets are not based on a real value, there is a lot of uncertainty in the system. It is that very uncertainty which keeps financial institutions from freeing funds for lending.

The government solution currently seems to be to buy those “toxic assets” from the owners of the securities to resume normal operation of the financial system. There are several problems with this solution. The first is that by spending $750 billion on the first TARP (toxic asset relief program), a $760 billion “stimulus program” which had nothing to do with correcting the problem, a TARP II program, and then a $410 billion omnibus spending bill, the American public has caught on to the fact that the money has to come from somewhere. There is little, if any, patience left for another huge spending bill in addition to President Obama’s proposed 2009-2010 budget. The President is continuing to propose huge spending on social programs which are liberal politics and have nothing to do with fixing the problem. The cost of buying the “toxic assets” is staggering. I believe the current administration has misspent the political capital from the election on the huge liberal spending programs and now will have to deal with the resentment to their spending. The resentment and potential political backlash will likely prevent the spending which should have been the first priority, fixing the mortgage crisis. If the mortgage security problem had been originally addressed, the markets would have fixed themselves and several trillion dollars in government "stimulus" could have been saved. By taking political advantage of the crisis to put liberal social programs in place, there is nothing left with which to fix the crisis. The only option is to borrow from foreign countries and tax the people who actually earn money, therefore leaving them nothing to invest in the markets. It is self-defeating.

My guess is that they will inevitably screw the taxpayers by paying way too much for the assets in order to appear to be doing something and gain political points. The actual value of the assets will eventually declare themselves and the government (taxpayers) will be left holding the empty bag. The government will once again reward the speculators and failures at the expense of the prudent and safe investors. The same congressional representatives who screwed the pooch on oversight, regulation and then on spending will be the ones trying to fix the problem. When the government negotiates with people who are actually smart about financial matters and do it for a living, the government will always get hosed.